Hi everyone, a little rant by me.

This is going to be a turbulent year for the good ole US of A, effectively having a ripple effect throughout much of the world.  Issues I would like to address is the souring economy, the Surge in Iraq and the farce of the 2008 Presidential Election.

The warning signs have been present for the last few years.  I’ve been saying since 2005 when crude oil was around $50-60 that within a couple of years it might skyrocket to $120.  Everyone thought those figures were extremely high, since crude was at an all time high at around $50 and seen to be at its peak.  Don’t be surprised to see crude reach $200 by 2010, especially if there’s another major conflict in the Middle East, or China and India increases their demand exponentially.  But crude could also very likely begin to drop to a more reasonable $70-80 a barrel by the end of 2008, start of 2009.  I’m more worried about the potential spikes.

Eventually, I believe crude oil is going to be very cheap within 1-2 decades.  As alternative energy goes from development to being introduced on the market, demand should start to decrease, especially in the US.  The hope is for China and India to follow suit and after stabilizing their economies and growth, begin to promote either alternative energy or nuclear energy.  While the world will still use crude oil in some forms of energy production during the next 50-100 yrs, demand should decrease within the next decade or two, causing a dramatic decline in the price.

I’m beginning to see why OPEC countries, in partnership with the oil consortium companies, are refusing to increase oil production to alleviate the high crude prices.  They realize oil’s use as a form of energy is in its final stages, and the commodity won’t be seen as valuable in the near future.  These countries and companies are trying to squeeze out every dollar they can, manipulating the price of oil, blaming it on a weak dollar and the increase in demand from China and India.  Look at the huge profits being raked in by consortiums like Unocal, BP, Shell, and Exxon.  Best way to describe it is if someone sees the end coming, and they’re trying to make as much as they can and cash out before the bubble goes bust.

Oil price is completely manipulated, just like diamonds.  De Beers controls 2/3 of the diamond cartel in the world, and the extortionate price of diamonds is completely artificial because of the controlled quantity produced annually.  If diamonds were mined on a large scale, they would still be valuable, just not extortionately expensive, and deterring the incentive of rogue countries/rebels to force people to mine for Blood Diamonds in order to maintain their power.  The production of Oil is controlled by OPEC, the only competitor might be Russia, but they barely make a dent.  Prices are artificial just like diamonds.

The rise in Crude Oil has been partially responsible for the rapid rise in real consumer goods prices, rapid inflation is a real danger over the next couple of years.  Inflation devalues individual savings, and also reduces real wages.  Do you think companies, in a recession, are going to generously give their employees pay raises to keep up with inflation?  What about the gov’t increasing Social Security to keep up with inflation?  Real income is actually going to go down over the next couple of years.

Still boggles my mind how the Bush Administration is still in denial of a recession in the US.  Why is the media even still debating if we’re in a recession while most financial analyst realize we are in a recession?

Forget about the recession, we should be worried about a looming Depression at the end of this summer.  Gas prices at the pump is at $3.70-$3.80 in the San Francisco Area.  Many analyst are projecting a target price of $4 when the peak summer driving season hits, and that’s a national average of $4, which means people in SF are going to be hit up for $4.50-$4.70 a gallon!  Still don’t believe a Depression is looming?  What did the FED just do?  They pumped over $200 billion into the housing mess.  Yeah, I wonder where they’ll get the $200 billion.  Normally when the FED bails out an industry or gov’t spending, they print more money out of thin air.  Since the FED dollar is a fiat based currency, backed by absolutely nothing, the FED can print as much funny money as they’d like and devalue the dollar even further.  What happens when the dollar plummets even further?  Crude Oil prices rise.  People need to realize that there’s a correlation between rising oil prices as the dollar slides.  While the euro rises against the dollar, and oil prices rise, it’s funny how prices at the pump haven’t risen as much exponentially in Europe as it has in the US over the past few years.

The US has been able to maintain a huge debt, and incur a big annual deficit since the Reagan years without defaulting on our loans.  How?  Look up the Petro Dollar.  It pretty much explains why countries around the world are forced to buy up huge reserves in US FED dollar, and actually buy US Bonds to support our debt.  It’s not because the US dollar is a stable currency, but the fact that countries have to buy the dollar in order to purchase oil from OPEC.  During the Nixon administration in the early 1970s, there was an agreement reached with OPEC nations, they would only accept US currency when they sold their oil on the market.  The only two oil bourse markets in the world until recently were in New York and London, and they only accept US dollar for trading.  The dollar was kept strong because countries were forced to buy into it in order to purchase oil, and US defaults on loans were avoided because countries were buying up US bonds (debt).  I don’t even want to get into how the FED operates, it’ll take the length of a graduate thesis to explain that.

The US has delayed this looming crisis over the years, we’ve seen a couple bubbles go bust, the Tech Bubble of 2000-2001, and now the Housing Bubble.  In 2005, I’ve warned of a stagnate housing market for ’06.  In the summer of 2006, I warned about a little something called the looming Sub Prime Mortgage Crisis, although I didn’t know much about it myself except for the few financial reports that was available.  The foreclosures these next couple of years is going to drastically shape the psyche of the US population, people are going to feel defeated seeing the banks take their homes away, and for the most part not to a fault of their own but because of the greed from mortgage lenders.  Giving home loans to unqualified borrowers, repackaging it for wholesale, making their commissions, and now the banks are extortionately raising the interest rate on some of the current sub prime borrowers, knowing some will still be able to pay until they foreclose themselves.  The mortgage firms are just trying to make as much of the worthless greenback before the whole housing market collapses and people begin to hand their property back to the banks.  Again, a…. Mild Depression in late ’08.

The Surge in Iraq.  Success?  A complete FAILURE!  Let’s look at the intentions and goals of the Surge laid out by the Bush Administration.

-Temporary increase in combat troops.

-Stabilize the country.

-Begin withdrawal of troops to pre Surge level.

-With stability, start the process of reducing the troop levels incrementally.

Amazing how McCain and Bush are hailing the Surge as a success when the initial goals have not been close to being remotely reached.  Even more amazing is how the Democrats (Peace Party?) has refused to attack this glaring indiscrepency.  Has the troop numbers been decreased to Pre Surge levels?  No.  Has there been a decrease in US combat casualties and civilian casualties?  Yes.  Is the current violence in Iraq less than under Saddam Hussein’s regime or during the first year of the War?  No.  Is Iraq close to being stabilized?  Not even close.

A better term to replace the Surge would be Escalation.  Just like in Vietnam, at the start of the Iraq war this was only suppose to be temporary.  Just like in Vietnam, we’ve divided the country into two… wait, three zones (Sunni, Shiite, Kurds).  Remember how the Johnson administration and the US media was spewing the positive progress in Vietnam in 1967?  Remember what happened in 1968?  A little military campaign called the Tet Offensive, which signaled our doom in that war.  I know many have dismissed the Vietnam comparisons, but just because this is a different terrain doesn’t mean the same fundamental tactics can’t be used against us by our enemies.

Currently, the Administration is patting themselves on the back, trumpeting the success of the Surge, and the so called “Awakening” of the Sunni Muslims in Iraq.  The plan laid out by the Saddam/Baathist gov’t before the US Invasion was to prolong the conflict, fighting an unconventional war, and win by attrition.  Does this sound familiar to Vietnam?  Bush/Neocons are convinced the country is stabilized since the “Awakening” of the Sunnis, and their willingness to help the US forces in going after Al Qaeda in Iraq.  Al Qaeda in Iraq was welcomed and partially funded by the Baathist insurgents to distract the US forces.  We’re now currently training and arming the Sunnis.  The Baathist insurgents since the first days of the Invasion have infiltrated and become embedded among the Shiite leadership, including Al Sadr’s militia.  The Sunnis are not going to work in any sort of coalition gov’t with an Iranian backed Shiite leadership, this is a façade the Sunnis are putting on. The situation in Iraq is probably going to explode by this Summer.  Imagine if the US had armed and trained the Viet Cons before the Tet Offensive.

Things might get extremely worse if the Bush Administration attacks Iran.  Provocation with Iran seems almost inevitable, the Neocons have hungered for war with the Persians.  There’s been reports of many senior Generals and Admirals threatening to resign if this Administration goes to war with Iran.  The Pentagon was formerly divided under Rumsfeld, with civilian war hawks arguing and belittling Generals and Admirals for their more sensible approach to war.  Gates may have temporarily stabilized the situation in the Pentagon, but as war approaches with Iran, there will be dissent among the Generals and Admirals, and we may launch another War without the brains to plan the logistics.  Recently, the resignation of Admiral Fallon is a disturbing sign that war is very near.  Either Fallon resigned in protest knowing the Administration is planning to launch strikes in Spring or Summer, or he’s being forced out by the Administration and replaced with someone who is more willing to be a parrot for the Administration as it finalizes its war plans.

Since the trend of conservative gov’t coming to power in Europe, like France and Germany, the likelihood of broad based European support for a US lead attack on Iran is likely.  In essence, I still believe most European governments openly criticize the US for the World to see, but the US is fighting a war for the stabilization of oil that Europe needs more than the US.  Does Europe have oil reserves?  The US has recently discovered a reserve encompassing North Dakota, Montana, and S Dakota would could increase the domestic reserves by up to 10x.  The US may just be the muscle for “Western” colonialism, but in the guise of American aggression, of course no facts to back this claim up, just an opinion.

We have to go back to the Petro Dollar in order to understand why Iran is a target.  Until 2002, the US Dollar was the sole currency used in trading for Crude Oil.  Iraq began selling some of its oil for Euros in 2002.  Next year, it was invaded.  The Gulf Arab OPEC nations have discussed the possibility of taking other forms of currency as payment for their oil.  Iran has opened a new oil bourse market this year, which has been in the planning for many years now, and is accepting other forms of currency other than the US Dollar as payment.  If we attack, imagine the instability it will cause across the whole Middle East, and the ripple effect around the world as the Strait of Hormuz is blocked and Mid East oil is unable to easily reach the world.

The 2008 US Presidential Election.  Our choices:  John McCain (Manchurian Candidate), Hillary Clinton (prolific liar, power hungry, and a criminal), Barack Obama (a disturbing support from his Cult of Personality).  McCain would be a third Bush term, even advocating 100 years of troop presence in Iraq.  People should realize that Obama and Cllinton aren’t the Peace candidates either.  Though they are criticizing the current policy in Iraq, they both realize that there’s been huge military bases built in that country with the full intention of being permanent.  The US Embassy in Baghdad will be the largest embassy in the world.  Obama and Clinton have advocated actions be taken against Iran.  Obama has sought a continuation of the War on Terrorism to Pakistan and increased presence in Afghanistan.

As we’ve seen lately, both Obama and Clinton offer plenty of rhetoric, no substance.  They engage in smearing each other’s credentials with personal attacks, not talking about the issues affecting our country, no solutions being offered, or stating any platform to run on.  Obama and Clinton may try to reach out to the blue collar workers and Ohio and Pennsylvania, “understanding” their difficulties and struggles, promising to do as much as they can to help relieve their problems when they get into the White House, but neither has told what solutions they have to rectify what’s plaguing America.  Obama and Universal Health Care?  How?  Clinton as her medical plan to have everyone covered, how?  She wants to force everyone to buy medical insurance, and penalize those that don’t by deducting from their taxes.  How about offering Federal medical coverage for those in need and can’t buy medical insurance?  Clinton is vague with her health care plan only stating it would cost over $110 billion, no explanations for the cost, not even having a working paper to present.  We’re suppose to blindly believe in the promises Obama, Clinton and McCain offer.  More broken promises.

Real choice is taken away from the population, we have been given hand picked candidates to choose from, none of them offering real change, just the same old rhetoric politicians use to get elected.  Why isn’t there a 3^rd party in the US political system?  Hell, why isn’t there a 2^nd party?  The US is ruled by a 1 party system, with 2 competing factions.  It is not a democracy, but a polyarchy.  Because of the horrendous acts of a bunch of brainwashed religious zealots on September 11^th, 2001, the US Empire is once again able to use a catastrophic event as an excuse to expand, the New Pearl Harbor of the 21^st Century.